A ridiculous start to the betting year for this column. I don’t want to brag and boast too much because that’s probably how Kerry Katona felt when being awarded the Mum of the Year trophy. As Kerry would be able to tell you were she here with me, things can very quickly go downhill.
However, three bets staked, ranging from evens to 3/1, and three winners for a substantial week one profit. In truth, it could have been far greater, as Swindon took the p*ss out of the -1 handicap with a 4-0 win and Pacos Ferreira negated the need for the Draw No Bet cover by winning 1-0 away at Sporting. Still, gift horses and mouths and all that.
Bet 1 – Notts County to beat Portsmouth – 21/20 (Bet Victor) – £20
Notts County are struggling at home at the moment, having only gained 14 points at Meadow Lane. However, away from home they are a different beast, and are the only unbeaten away club in the country. With this in mind, they should never be available at better than evens to win at Fratton Park. Portsmouth are a club in an irreversible slump, and have not won in fourteen games, gaining three points from a possible 42, so County should be a price of around 4/6 in my opinion. Pile on the value.
Bet 2 – Napoli to beat Palermo by more than one goal – 19/20 (Bet365) – £20
I was very tempted to bank on the home side winning by more than two goals at 5/2, but that totaliser at the bottom of the page does funny things to the mind. Instead, I’m playing it safe with the -1.5 goal handicap. Napoli are scoring 2.5 goals per home game this season, and only Lazio have a better home record in Serie A. Their opponent this Sunday are Palermo, who are the only club in the division yet to win away, gaining just three points from a possible thirty. In fact, they have just four goals on the road.
Bet 3 – Cardiff to beat Ipswich by exactly one goal – 14/5 (Ladbrokes) – £10
Despite their mindf*ck against Peterborough recently, Cardiff have the best home record in the country, dropping just three points all season. They are top of the Championship and face Ipswich this Saturday. Ipswich have managed to win five away games this season, and will not lie down quietly. Given that Cardiff’s last five home wins have been by a single goal, back that to continue.
Story so far…