A ruddy balls up, I tell you. Just as I was getting into the spirit of making money each week, I got bitten by Lazio’s inability to hold on to a half-time lead and Morocco’s inability to score against Angola. Still Watford’s 4-0 win (I could have been a great deal greedier on that one at 4/5 just for the win) meant a return of £38 from the £50 stake, and your trusty betting column remains comfortably in profit.
Bet 1 – Mallorca v Malaga Under 2.5 goals – 8/11 (888 Bet) – £25
I just wrote a piece on Malaga and realised that their away games this season have read: 0-1, 0-1, 0-0, 2-1, 0-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2, 1-0. Clearly this will be the inevitable 3-3 to stop the rot, but have to again back the under 2.5. It is a bet that would have been right on 8 out of 9 occasions (and stopped by an injury time own goal in their 2-1 defeat), and therefore odds of 8/11 must be generous.
Bet 2 – Coventry to beat Preston Draw No Bet – evens (Various) – £15
Coventry travel to Preston as 15/8 outsiders to win the fixture, but they really should be favourites. A strong run has seen the Sky Blues move near the playoff positions, and only four sides have a better away record in League One, and have won four of their last five on the road. Preston, meanwhile, have two points in five home games, so it is silly to have them as short as 7/5 in places. Covering myself with the Draw No Bet, because Coventry love conceding late in games.
Bet 3 – Matej Vydra first goalscorer Nottm Forest v Watford – 6/1 (Bet365)- £5
The permanent signing of Vydra by Watford was a strong sign that their status as Udinese B could see them launch a serious promotion bid. The Czech international is already reportedly on Tottenham’s radar and doesn’t turn 21 until May. He has four goals in two games (and eight in five) and is 13/8 to score anytime. I prefer the smaller stakes gamble on the first scorer price of 6/1. Having scored both goals in the 2-0 win over Forest in December, it seems a risk worth taking.
Story so far…