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Why Arsenal are doomed to near misses

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Keith Satuku
 @ March 6th, 2014

Arsenal’s seasons tend to implode at this time of year, and there is a general understanding that it is due to their poor performances against big teams. Why?

Some people point to the need for marquee signings, others blame the maturity of the squad, while some suggest it’s a lack of bodies. Here’s another theory…

Arsene Wenger has his vision of how to play clearly written in his mind. His team should knock the ball around, pass short, making economic passes until they pin the opposition in their own half. Once they have the opponent clinging on for dear life in its 18-yard box, they rotate the movement of attacking midfielders until the defence opens up.

The full-backs also push up to provide natural width and a steady supply of chances to a centre forward whose main job is to bring the players behind him into the game by playing with back to goal.

Like similar perfectionists, Wenger’s style is not just designed to win; it is designed to outclass, to totally dominate the opponent and to give fans unrivalled entertainment.

Yet there is one problem: this system works better when playing against opponents of inferior quality. There are superior teams like Barcelona, Bayern Munich and Manchester City, who want to impose themselves on Arsenal.

There is also another group of teams like Chelsea, Liverpool and to some extent Manchester United, who usually take a successful defensive approach against Arsenal. They still make life difficult for the Gunners because they will not give too much ground away and they carry too much potency in counter attacks.

Arsenal tend to under-perform in these games. While player errors can sometimes be the main reason behind losses,the problem largely has to do with Wenger’s side lacking potent contingency plans.

While they started the home game against Bayern Munich really well – and maybe Mesut Ozil should have converted his penalty to give them the lead – they needed to find an alternative way to win with 10 men.

They defended well, but they just kept on soaking up the pressure when they needed to find ways to score. When Arsenal face a better passing team, they need to improve their defensive strategy.

Wenger also struggles against the quality sides that set up defensively against them. In the last Liverpool game, Arsenal’s defence played a high line and Liverpool exposed it by floating balls over them and letting pacy strikers run in behind.

Unlike lesser teams, who may lack the quality to take limited and tight chances, big teams generally have the quality to score from fewer chances against the Gunners.

Arsenal rarely take maximum points against Chelsea or Manchester United despite dominating the ball, because these teams prepare against to thwart the obvious threat the Gunners will pose in central areas.

Most teams who win the Champions League adopt defensive and offensive roles according to the quality of opponents. Manchester United and Bayern Munich generally took the game to opponents in 2008 and 2013 respectively, but defended against Barcelona en route to the final.

Inter Milan and Chelsea both had to negotiate their way past offensive Barcelona and Bayern Munich sides before they could win land the Big Ears in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

Wenger is among the greatest mangers the game has ever seen. He has seen Arsenal through a delicate financial period, but until he builds the world’s best side – like Pep Guardiola’s last two – there is virtually no way of winning titles without knocking these big teams; sometimes in an ugly defensive way.

Everton (FA cup, home), Bayern Munich (Champions League, away), Tottenham ( Premier League, away), Chelsea ( Premier League, away) and Manchester City (Premier League, home) are the Gunners’ forthcoming fixtures. Unless, Wenger has worked out a plan B during the international break, this could be a terrible month for Arsenal.

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