The Chiefs and Bills will face off in the playoffs for the third time in this decade, and in each of the previous encounters, Patrick Mahomes came out as the winner. Buffalo’s quarterback Josh Allen will have the home-field advantage this time, as the AFC divisional playoff game is scheduled at Highmark Stadium on Sunday night.
On Sunday, Patrick Mahomes will play his first career away playoff game. The harsh Buffalo weather will not be a significant factor, considering that the Chiefs played one of the coldest games in NFL history last week in Kansas City. If the snowstorm brewing in New York State retains its intensity, the game might get postponed, but bookie apps are not backing down from their opinion of the Bills as a 2.5-point favorite.
Let’s preview both teams and available odds for this exciting AFC matchup, which is eligible for a bet with a Caesars sportsbook promo.
Chief’s First Away Playoff Game in the Mahomes’ Era
The Chiefs are not scared of cold weather. Last week, Mahomes threw for 262 yards and a touchdown against the Dolphins at -4 degrees. He certainly can battle the weather factors but can't do anything about his wide receivers dropping the ball on accurate passes. Mahomes threw for 4,183 yards in the regular season, with 27 TDs and 14 interceptions. Despite the talents of last season's MVP, Chiefs receivers dropped the ball on 44 occasions in the regular season.
Luckily for Kansas City, their running back, Isiah Pacheco, can easily secure yards on the ground. Pacheco recorded 934 rushing yards in 14 games and crossed the end zone 7 times in the regular season.
The Chiefs offense averages 22.1 points per contest, but the defense was the more consistent unit on the field during the regular season. This unit allowed 16.7 points per game, and the pass rush led by DE Chris Jones can wreck opposing teams' plans for the passing game.
Allen Is The Epicenter of the Offense
Buffalo had a turbulent regular season, being on the edge of missing the playoffs, and now is a favorite to play an AFC championship game. The Bills' success depends on Josh Allen. The dual-threat quarterback is the engine of the offense. Against the Steelers in the wild-card round last week, Allen scored 3 TDs with 203 passing yards.
During the regular season, Josh threw for 4,306 yards with 29 TDs, plus 524 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. The discouraging thing about Allen is the tendency to throw interceptions, with 18 picks in 2023.
Allen is the beneficiary of a talented arsenal of offensive weapons. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has contributed 1,183 yards, eight touchdowns in the regular season, and 52 yards versus the Steelers. Dalton Kincaid is emerging as one of the league's best tight ends, with 673 receiving yards in the regular season and 59 yards last week. The Bills average 26.8 points a game and allow 18.2 points per game. Injuries have taken their toll on the defensive roster but have not weakened the production on this side of the ball.
Betting Prediction and Odds
The Bills defeated the Chiefs 20-17 in December at Arrowhead Stadium and now have a chance to repeat at home. The moneyline bet offers -142 odds on the Bills, and Kansas City receives +120 odds for the same wager. Covering the 2.5-point spread is valued at -120 odds for the favorite and offers +100 odds for the underdog Chiefs to cover. The total is 45 points with -112 odds for the Over bet and -108 for the Under bet.
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