Interceptions are a quarterback's worst nightmare. After all, ball security is job security in the NFL. Nothing can swing the momentum in a game as a miscalculated pass that ends up in the arms of an opposing defensive player. Not surprisingly, online sportsbooks make interceptions one of the most popular NFL player prop bets. Let's examine the odds on potential candidates for this undesirable honor.
Bryce Young and the Rookie Challenge (+3000)
Experience has shown that rookie quarterbacks are most prone to throwing interceptions. Peyton Manning ended his first season in the NFL in 1998 with 28 picks, while Trevor Lawrence gifted the ball on 17 occasions in his inaugural NFL season in 2021. Lawrence is considered a generational talent, and this year's overall first pick at the draft, Bryce Young receives similar praise from analysts.
There is no doubt Bryce will be a starter for the Carolina Panthers, and a 17-game season opens a lot of opportunities for picks. However , the odds on Young are +3000, which means that he’s not a top contender, mainly because Young recorded only 13 interceptions during his two years at Alabama. Yet, college football is not the same as the NFL. Young already had a couple of interceptions during the first week of training camp.
"You’re gonna make mistakes and throw interceptions. So you just need to learn to move on to the next play,” said Panter's coach Frank Reich about Young's early mistakes.
Bryce might be a huge talent, but he might not be immune to rookie mistakes and is a good bet for most regular season interceptions thrown.
Dak Prescott Will Tone Down His Aggressiveness (+1000)
A good quarterback getting paid great money is the reputation following Dak Prescott in the past two seasons. The Dallas Cowboys captain threw 15 interceptions last season, tying the record with Davis Mills, who will get relegated to a backup position with the Houston Texans in the upcoming season.
Dak receives +1000 odds and for good measure. Last season was his worst, but not the only one with a double-figure interception. In 2021 Dak had 10 interactions, slightly lower than his 11 picks for 2019, and a bit better than his 2017’s 13 interactions. A trend is becoming clear - Dak is aggressive, resulting in riskier passes. But the quarterback recently said that he has learned his lesson.
"I am going to lessen my interception numbers. That is a guarantee," said Prescott during training camp.
Josh Allen Is Paying the Price for Being a Gunslinger (+1000)
The Buffalo Bills quarterback is known as a gunslinger, and that mentality has proven costly for the rising star. Allen threw for 14 interceptions last season, which is one less than his 15 interceptions in 2021.
In his 5 years in the NFL, 2019 was the only season when he kept his interceptions under double digits, and barely at that with 9 interceptions. This track record of insecurity with the ball during the passing segment of his game, ranks him high on the betting line list for most regular season interceptions thrown in 2023, sharing the top spot with Dak at +1000 odds.
With 60 interceptions in 77 regular season games, Allen is showing consistency in that aspect of his game. And it's not encouraging that Josh's completion percentage has declined in the previous season.
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