The UC Davis Aggies roll into Stockton on December 16th to take on the Pacific Tigers in a non-conference NCAA basketball matchup. The Aggies have started the season strong with a 9-2 record, while the Tigers have struggled to a 3-7 start.
UC Davis features a high-powered offense led by senior guard Elijah Pepper, who is averaging 18.5 points per game. The Aggies are scoring over 80 points per contest and shooting 49% from the field as a team.
Meanwhile, Pacific likes to play at a slower tempo and rely on defense and rebounding to grind out low-scoring wins. The Tigers allow just 64.2 points per game, but their offense has sputtered this year.
This clash of styles should make for an intriguing matchup. UC Davis enters as 6.5-point favorites according to most betting apps. Let's break down both teams' strengths and weaknesses heading into this non-conference showdown.
Team Analysis
UC Davis Aggies
The Aggies are led by senior Elijah Pepper, who paces the team in points, assists and steals. He has plenty of help in the form of 6'3" junior guard Christian Anigwe (16.2 ppg) and 6'6" forward Kane Milling (13.8 ppg, 9.1 rpg).
As a team, UC Davis is scoring 81.5 points per game while allowing 70.8 ppg. Offensively they have been excellent, with a 49.4% field goal percentage and 38.9% from 3-point land. Rebounding has been a weakness at times, with a -2.5 rebound margin.
Defensively, the Aggies play an aggressive man-to-man scheme focused on forcing turnovers and preventing easy looks. However, they do allow opponents to shoot 44.3% from the field. Their defensive rebounding must improve in this game.
Pacific Tigers
The Tigers are led by senior forward Jordan Ivy-Curry at 13.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. But Ivy-Curry has little help offensively. Pacific is scoring just 66.4 ppg as a team on 42.1% shooting.
Defensively, Pacific employs a tight 2-3 zone which holds opponents to 64.2 ppg on just 41.2% shooting. Rebounding is a strength, with a +5 margin per game thanks to Ivy-Curry and 6'11" center Cam Denson (7.1 rpg).
Pacific's struggles have come on offense, where they lack consistent shooters and playmakers. If their defense can slow down UC Davis, they may be able to grind out an ugly win.
Betting Breakdown and Predictions
Let's look at the betting odds and best bets for UC Davis vs Pacific.
Spread: UC Davis -6.5
Moneyline: UC Davis -250, Pacific +195
Over/Under: 144.5 points
UC Davis has gone 6-5 against the spread (ATS) this season, while Pacific is 4-6 ATS. The Aggies have gone over the total in 7 of their 11 games.
Based on the team analysis, there are a few betting predictions to make and that you may want to consider when you pay a visit to NCAAB betting sites this weekend:
Pick: UC Davis -6.5
The Aggies' athletic scorers should be able to get the shots they want against Pacific's zone defense. Elijah Pepper and Christian Anigwe have the quickness to penetrate inside and kick out to open shooters. Meanwhile, Pacific may struggle to keep up offensively.
Pick: Over 144.5
UC Davis likes to push tempo and play fast, evidenced by those 81+ points per game. They have enough firepower to eclipse 75+ points on their own if needed. Pacific should contribute enough points to push this over the total.
Player Props to Consider:
Elijah Pepper over 18.5 points
Christian Anigwe over 3.5 assists
Kane Milling over 7.5 rebounds
Final Score Prediction
Based on the team analysis and betting breakdown, UC Davis appears primed to leave Stockton with a comfortable win. The Aggies have too much offensive talent for the Tigers to contain for 40 minutes.
Look for Pepper and Anigwe to have big scoring days attacking the Pacific zone off the dribble. For the Tigers, Jordan Ivy-Curry should produce a double-double, but they'll struggle to mount enough scoring without consistent 3-point shooting.
Final Score Prediction: UC Davis 89, Pacific 72
The Aggies stay hot offensively, eclipse 80+ points and cover as 6.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers put up a fight behind Ivy-Curry but can't keep pace for the full 40 minutes. Back UC Davis laying the points in this non-conference affair.
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